UGANDA’S ELECTIONS (4.3.2016)

      President Museveni will continue his tenure as President of Uganda. His recent electoral success continues a trend of success in a government whose constitution has experienced no other president. While the international community is rightly concerned with this trend, Ugandans themselves hold the president in moderately positive esteem. Research World International conducted a poll between December 10, 2015 and Janurary 17, 2016, surveying over 2,600 registered voters from 89 of Uganda’s 112 districts (http://researchworldint.net/images/downloads/Opinion-Poll-Report-Dec-2015-Jan-2016.pdf). In Research World’s poll, Museveni accrued 51% of the popular vote while FDC candidate Kizza Besigye won 32% and independent candidate Patrick Amama Mbabazi won 12% (http://researchworldint.net/images/downloads/Opinion-Poll-Report-Dec-2015-Jan-2016.pdf).

       In the election itself, Uganda’s Electoral Commission awarded President Museveni the electoral victory with 60.6% of the vote, which is 5,971,872 of the 9,851,812 valid votes cast (http://www.ec.or.ug/?q=2016-general-elections-summary). In total 10,329,131 people cast votes or approximately 67% of registered voters. Museveni’s ~60% vote is an improvement over his 2006 victory but less than his victory in 2011 (59.26% and 68,38% respectively).

      The 2016 election was pocked with systemic electoral failures. Demonstrators took to the streets throughout Kampala in response to polling stations that lacked presidential ballots and in response to the arrest of the Forum for Democratic Change’s presidential candidate Kizza Besigye’s house arrest. One district in Kibuli, an opposition stronghold, did not receive Presidential aspirant Kizza Besigye was placed under house arrest since February 17th (http://www.monitor.co.ug/News/National/Besigye-house-arrest-case-resumes-today/-/688334/3121742/-/hqvuui/-/index.html), and has since released a video describing his detainment. The NRM also hired approximately 100,000 ‘Crime Preventers’ prior to the elections (http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/19/world/africa/top-opposition-candidate-in-uganda-is-arrested-on-election-day.html ), causing observers to worry that the NRM enlisted teams of vigilantees to intimidate and subvert the opposition. US Secretary of State John Kerry responded begrudgingly to the elections in his telephone call to President Museveni. Kerry noted problems at the voting locations, arrest of candidates, and the Uganda government’s move to block social media (http://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2016/02/253069.htm) .

      The Supreme Court continues to hear appeals from political opponents challenging the outcome of the election, but it is unlikely that they will overturn February’s results. Instead, if the Supreme Court decides to acknowledge the election irregularities, it will likely report a similar outcome as it reported in 2012. In the previous presidential election, Uganda’s Supreme Court found that though there were sporadic irregularities the results adequately reflected the will of the people and would stand.